empty
14.04.2025 12:59 AM
The US Dollar: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

There will be a few significant events in the upcoming week. Of course, reports such as industrial production, retail sales, and new home sales should be noted. At first glance, they do not appear to be able to change market sentiment. While the European Central Bank meeting and UK inflation data at least have some potential to influence the market, the US data do not appear to carry such weight.

As a result, everything will come down to Donald Trump's decisions. The president may take a break, as endlessly imposing tariffs isn't feasible — it simply makes no sense. All countries have been granted a 90-day grace period, so we will likely not see new tariffs against them. China has so far stopped tariffs at 125% and has not yet responded to Trump's most recent increase to 145%. Therefore, a pause is also possible here. If the pause lasts at least a week, the US dollar may get a chance to recover slightly.

This image is no longer relevant

Unfortunately, we are talking about Trump, meaning making forecasts is essentially pointless. The current wave markings for both instruments suggest a new prolonged uptrend. However, if Trump pauses, it will be extremely difficult for the euro and the pound to continue rising. New tariffs have triggered every drop in the dollar in recent months. As I've said, wave analysis cannot be a primary reference point in forecasting under current conditions.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument is continuing to form a new upward trend segment. Donald Trump's actions have reversed the previous downward trend. As a result, the upcoming wave structure will entirely depend on the US president's stance and actions — something that must always be kept in mind.

From a purely wave-based perspective, a corrective wave structure is likely forming, typically consisting of three waves. However, wave 2 may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, wave 3 of the upward trend may have already begun — with potential targets reaching as high as the 1.25 area.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has transformed. We are now dealing with an upward impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and reversals that do not align with wave patterns or technical analysis. Therefore, at the moment, a corrective wave structure should be expected, the size of which will also depend on Trump. Afterward, the formation of wave 3 of the uptrend could follow — but only if Trump's trade policy doesn't make a complete U-turn, which currently seems unlikely.


Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
  2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in market direction never exists. Don't forget protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

UR/USD. Análise e previsão

Na segunda-feira, o par EUR/USD caiu para uma baixa de duas semanas, mas não houve uma venda significativa, e durante o início da sessão europeia, o par se manteve acima

Irina Yanina 22:20 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Dólar está se tornando uma moeda de risco

Em minhas análises, observei regularmente que o declínio na demanda pelo dólar dos EUA não é apenas uma questão de depreciação de preço. Estamos falando de uma moeda

Chin Zhao 22:06 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Dólar americano. Prévia semanal

Na próxima semana, os Estados Unidos divulgarão relatórios sobre inflação, produção industrial e alguns outros indicadores de importância moderada. O destaque, sem dúvida, será a inflação. No entanto, na minha

Chin Zhao 21:58 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Libra britânica. Prévia Semanal

Nas últimas duas semanas, a libra esterlina sofreu uma desvalorização ainda maior que a do euro, embora o padrão das ondas de ambos os ativos siga praticamente idêntico. Por isso

Chin Zhao 21:52 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Trump continua a pressionar os parceiros comerciais dos EUA (possível retomada do crescimento do USD/JPY e do Ethereum)

Os Estados Unidos, por meio de seu presidente, continuam a exercer pressão econômica — e, possivelmente, também geopolítica — sobre seus parceiros comerciais, provocando um efeito ricochete no comércio global

Pati Gani 17:15 2025-07-14 UTC+2

O que prestar atenção em 14 de julho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Não há relatórios macroeconômicos programados para segunda-feira. Lembremos que, na semana passada, também não houve relatórios significativos, discursos ou quaisquer outros eventos notáveis na União Europeia ou nos Estados Unidos

Paolo Greco 16:14 2025-07-14 UTC+2

União Europeia se prepara para retaliar

No fim de semana, foi revelado que os Estados Unidos vão impor tarifas de 30% sobre todos os produtos da União Europeia a partir de 1º de agosto. Em resposta

Jakub Novak 14:07 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Os mercados realmente gostam de tarifas?

Todos veem o que querem ver. Para Donald Trump, a alta recorde do S&P 500 é a prova de que o mercado aprova suas tarifas. Já para os investidores

Marek Petkovich 14:07 2025-07-14 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Anteriormente, o presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, impôs tarifas de 25% sobre todas as exportações japonesas para os Estados Unidos, com vigência a partir de 1º de agosto. A medida

Irina Yanina 18:25 2025-07-11 UTC+2

O que observar no dia 11 de julho? Uma visão geral fundamental para iniciantes

Há poucas publicações macroeconômicas previstas para sexta-feira, mas o volume de negociações ainda deve ser maior do que em qualquer outro dia desta semana. O Reino Unido divulgará dados sobre

Paolo Greco 16:50 2025-07-11 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.