empty
19.08.2024 03:56 PM
EUR/USD: The Pair Hits an Eight-Month High

A new day brings new price records. Today, the EUR/USD pair reached 1.1051, marking its highest level since December 24, 2022, when the pair tested the 1.11 level. After eight months, traders are once again eyeing the 1.11 price level. The overall weakness of the U.S. dollar is allowing EUR/USD buyers to anticipate further gains, especially as the euro has been "gaining strength" recently due to discussions about the potential divergence in the policies of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).

This image is no longer relevant

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped sharply today, testing the 101 level for the first time since January this year. This sharp decline may seem unusual at first glance, as Monday's economic calendar is nearly empty. The only notable event is the speech by Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller, who will express his views during the U.S. trading session. Additionally, the Leading Indicators Index will be released today (this index includes ten components, ranging from consumer expectations to building permits). However, this secondary release typically does not have a significant impact on the market.

In other words, it may seem that the EUR/USD pair is rising "out of nowhere." But that's not entirely accurate. The dollar has reacted quite strongly to recent statements by Federal Reserve officials, whose rhetoric has been dovish. For example, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who has voting rights on the Committee this year, stated that it's "time for the Fed to adjust its policy." According to her, recent macroeconomic data suggest that inflation is moving toward the 2% target, and delaying a rate cut could lead to "undesirable outcomes," namely price stability with an unstable labor market. Daly did not specify the optimal (in her view) size of the rate cut for the September meeting. In this context, she offered a rather vague statement that the Fed needs to adjust the base rate "in line with the economic situation and considering the central bank's goals."

Another Fed official, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, also cautioned his colleagues against maintaining restrictive policy "longer than necessary." According to him, keeping the interest rate at its current level while inflation is declining "is a form of tightening monetary policy." He emphasized that not cutting the rate at the September meeting could harm the labor market.

Goolsbee's colleague, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, echoed these concerns in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, urging his colleagues to cut the interest rate in September. He noted that inflation is progressing while the labor market shows "rather alarming signs."

In other words, three Fed officials simultaneously conveyed the same message: delaying the easing of monetary policy is "tantamount to disaster."

As we can see, the July Nonfarm Payrolls softened the Fed's rhetoric, with central bank members increasingly expressing concerns about the labor market situation. It's worth noting that after the July meeting, the Fed revised one of the key phrases in its accompanying statement. In July, the central bank indicated that it was "attentive to risks to both sides of the mandate"—i.e., price stability and maximum employment. Previously, the regulator only mentioned a high focus on inflation risks.

Given that these remarks were made by Fed members just days before the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, they triggered increased volatility. Market participants began speculating that Jerome Powell might also adopt a more dovish stance on Friday, increasing the likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September.

It's worth noting that this will be Powell's first public appearance following the release of July's CPI and PPI growth data, the disappointing July Nonfarm Payrolls, and "Black Monday." Ahead of Powell's Friday speech and following the dovish rhetoric from Daly, Goolsbee, and Kashkari, the dollar is under additional pressure, especially against the euro, which is strengthening on speculation that the ECB may maintain the status quo in September. Ultimately, everything will depend on the August inflation report for the Eurozone, which will be released in early September. In July, the overall CPI accelerated, while the core CPI remained at the previous month's level. If European inflation shows stubbornness again in August, the ECB may refrain from easing monetary policy at the September meeting. Such speculations provide background support for the euro.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop supports further growth in EUR/USD.

From a technical standpoint, the pair on the daily chart is positioned between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands, and above all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which has formed a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. The target for the upward movement remains at the 1.1110 level, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the MN timeframe.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Pasaran Merayakan Kemenangan

Pasaran kewangan memberikan reaksi positif terhadap penerbitan statistik pekerjaan AS bagi bulan Jun. Jumlah pekerjaan meningkat sebanyak 143,000, melebihi unjuran penganalisis Bloomberg. Angka bagi bulan April dan Mei telah disemak

Marek Petkovich 10:15 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Minggu Hadapan Mungkin Bermula dengan Nada Positif untuk Pasaran (Kemungkinan Kesinambungan Semula Pertumbuhan dalam #SPX dan #NDX)

Data pasaran buruh AS yang diterbitkan oleh Jabatan Buruh telah memberikan keyakinan berhati-hati dalam kalangan pelabur, sekali gus memanjangkan kenaikan dalam pasaran ekuiti AS, menyokong dolar dan melemahkan harga emas

Pati Gani 10:06 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Pasaran Sedang Bersedia untuk Kejutan Lain

Baru semalam, Presiden A.S. Donald Trump mengumumkan bahawa pentadbirannya akan mula menghantar surat kepada rakan dagang pada hari Jumaat, menggariskan kadar tarif unilateral yang, menurut beliau, negara-negara tersebut perlu membayar

Jakub Novak 09:55 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Laporan Pekerjaan Amerika Syarikat yang Kukuh Mengatasi Semua Jangkaan

Dolar AS melonjak berbanding pelbagai aset berisiko apabila angka utama dalam laporan pekerjaan bulan Jun meyakinkan Rizab Persekutuan bahawa tiada keperluan untuk menurunkan kadar faedah pada bulan ini dan bahawa

Jakub Novak 09:49 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Apakah yang Perlu Diberikan Perhatian pada 4 Julai? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Analisis Laporan Makroekonomi: Tiada laporan makroekonomi dijadualkan pada hari Jumaat. Seperti yang disebutkan sebelum ini, hari ini adalah cuti umum di Amerika Syarikat, dikenali sebagai Hari Kemerdekaan. Semua bank

Paolo Greco 07:59 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 4 Julai: Reeves Menangis — Adakah Pound Menjunam?

Pasangan mata wang GBP/USD juga didagangkan dengan agak tenang sepanjang hari Khamis sehingga permulaan sesi dagangan AS. Sebagai peringatan, sehari sebelumnya mata wang British telah menjunam hampir 200 pip. Namun

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 4 Julai: Perjanjian Perdagangan Ketiga Trump Juga Tidak Membantu Dolar

Pasangan mata wang EUR/USD didagangkan dengan sangat tenang sepanjang Khamis, sehinggalah laporan pengangguran dan pasaran buruh dikeluarkan di Amerika Syarikat. Namun, kita akan membincangkan laporan-laporan tersebut dalam artikel lain. Dalam

Paolo Greco 03:56 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Rundingan Perdagangan Amerika Syarikat–Jepun Buntu, BoJ Kekal Berdiam Diri

Laporan suku tahunan Tankan oleh Bank of Japan menunjukkan bahawa kesan tarif baharu AS belum memberikan kesan yang signifikan terhadap sentimen korporat, dan keadaan perniagaan bagi pengeluar besar meningkat secara

Kuvat Raharjo 00:48 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Dolar Memberi Peluang Rehat kepada Rizab Persekutuan

Laporan pasaran buruh mengesahkan naratif yang lazim dalam pasaran: berdagang dengan cara yang memberi manfaat kepada Donald Trump. Pada tahun 2023–2024, perbincangan tentang keunggulan Amerika menyebabkan kenaikan dalam dolar, yang

Marek Petkovich 00:48 2025-07-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Apakah yang Diberitahu oleh Data Senarai Gaji Bukan Ladang Bulan Jun kepada Kita?

Laporan pasaran buruh AS yang diterbitkan pada hari Khamis ternyata agak bercampur-campur, walaupun pasaran mentafsirkannya memihak kepada mata wang Amerika. Melihat ke hadapan, perlu dinyatakan bahawa meskipun terdapat reaksi optimistik

Irina Manzenko 00:48 2025-07-04 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.