Analisis Forex & Kajian: 12.12.2023 - EUR/USD: Ahead of ECB and Fed...

12.12.2023 01:26 PM

EUR/USD: Ahead of ECB and Fed meetings

Despite some decline in the DXY index, overall, the dollar remains stable on the eve of important events and publications.

The first of these is the publication today at 13:30 (GMT) of fresh inflation data in the United States. Tomorrow's decisions by the Federal Reserve regarding the prospects of monetary policy will largely depend on them.

Today marks the beginning of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve this year.

Even though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously mentioned the possibility of another interest rate hike this year, i.e., at this meeting, most economists believe that the central bank leaders will not raise interest rates and may hint at an imminent shift in monetary policy towards easing. Recent data on inflation in the United States, signaling a slowdown, suggest such a possibility: in October, the Consumer Price Index slowed to 0% (from 0.4% in September with a forecast of 0.1%) and 3.2% on an annual basis (compared to 3.7% in September with a forecast of 3.3%), while the annual core CPI adjusted from 4.1% in September to 4.0% in October.

That is why today's publication of inflation data in the United States will determine how strong the accompanying statements by Federal Reserve officials will be on Wednesday.

Most economists believe that the Fed will begin easing its monetary policy in 2024, but not before the second half of the year. Until then, it will keep the interest rate at the current level of 5.50%.

Powell already mentioned that they are not thinking about lowering rates, but the question they are asking is whether they should raise rates again. This was after the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, when its leaders extended the pause in interest rate hikes, leaving it at 5.50%.

It would be a big surprise if Powell now speaks about the possibility of easing policy, given the slowdown in inflation in the United States. In this case, the dollar will come under strong selling pressure, which, in turn, along with Powell's dovish statements, will trigger the so-called pre-holiday rally in the U.S. stock market.

Otherwise, if today's inflation data indicate an acceleration, it will increase the likelihood of keeping the interest rate at the current level for a longer time. Moreover, it will fuel intrigue about tomorrow's decision by the Federal Reserve—whether the interest rate will be raised or not.

The decision on it will be published on Wednesday at 19:00 (GMT). The Federal Reserve press conference will begin at 19:30.

As for the main competitor of the dollar in the foreign exchange market, the euro is strengthening today against both major cross pairs and the dollar.

As of writing, the EUR/USD pair was trading near the 1.0800 level, attempting to overcome the zone of significant short-term resistance levels at 1.0793 and 1.0810.

If today's inflation data in the United States, as noted above, turn out to be stronger than forecast and previous values, it will likely lead to the strengthening of the dollar and, consequently, a decline in EUR/USD.

In this case, a more successful breakdown of the key support level at 1.0760 is possible, leading to further decline.

However, it is important to remember that after the Federal Reserve meeting this week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will also hold its meeting. What if it surprises the markets and raises interest rates? The ECB's decision on interest rates will be published on Thursday at 13:15 (GMT). Until this event, the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair will be entirely dependent on the movement of the dollar.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Jurij Tolin,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Pasaran Mungkin Sedang Jatuh dalam Perangkap yang Sama Sekali Lagi

Krisis Timur Tengah Sebagai Permulaan kepada Perang Dunia... (Penurunan Terhad Mungkin Berlaku untuk Bitcoin dan EUR/USD)

Apa yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 17 Jun? Ulasan Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pedagang Baharu

Gambaran Keseluruhan GBP/USD – 17 Jun: Mesyuarat Fed dan BoE Sebagai Alasan untuk Menjual Dolar

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 17 Jun: Status Aset Selamat Tidak Lagi Berfungsi

Trump Berusaha Untuk Mengalihkan Tanggungjawab kepada Eropah

Dolar Dalam Keadaan Sangat Tidak Stabil

USD/JPY. Mesyuarat Jun Bank of Japan: Satu Pratonton

Pound Mengabaikan Data Lemah dan Tekad untuk Terus Meningkat

Laporan CFTC: Dolar Kembali Dijual. Menantikan Pendedahan Baharu daripada Trump

Analisis terbaik