Analisis Forex & Kajian: 07.11.2022 - DXY: Waiting for new drivers....

07.11.2022 03:14 PM

DXY: Waiting for new drivers. Rise or fall?

During today's Asian trading session, the dollar tried to develop an upward trend after a landslide fall last Friday, also opening today's trading day with an upward gap. Futures on the dollar index (DXY) also opened today's trading day with a gap of 24 points, near the 111.00 mark.

However, the buyers of the dollar, so far, clearly do not have enough strength to regain control of the situation and provoke a resumption of the DXY bullish trend.

At the beginning of today's European trading session, the dollar is falling again, and the DXY index has again moved into the "red" zone, dropping below Friday's low of 110.61 to 110.31 as of writing.

Futures for major US stock indices are also growing today after Friday's growth. Probably, on the eve of the start of the midterm elections to the US Congress on November 8, participants in the US stock market are counting on the Democrats to hold their positions in Congress and continue, or even, possibly, strengthen the stimulation of the US economy.

In addition, the Friday report of the US Department of Labor brought to these calculations of investors a certain amount of hope that the Fed will soon begin to slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening. The Labor Department report shows that although the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector in October amounted to 261,000 against the forecast of 200,000, unemployment in the United States rose to 3.7% against the forecast of 3.6% and the previous values 3.5%. The US labor market remains resilient despite a rebound in unemployment. At the same time, market participants expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 0.50% in December and not by 0.75%, as it did at the last few FOMC meetings.

"The time to slow down the pace of rate hikes may come as early as December–February," Fed Chairman Powell said at a press conference following the November meeting of the central bank last Wednesday.

At the same time, market participants understand that, as Powell said, "it's very premature to think about a pause now, it's very premature to even talk about it."

Thus, the sellers of the dollar are counting on a slowdown in the Fed's monetary policy tightening.

However, inflation in the US is still high for the Fed to stop fighting it.

"The need to raise rates is still there, we still have work to do," Powell said.

Wage growth, as also follows from the Friday report of the Department of Labor, has accelerated, which indicates the possibility of further inflation growth in the country (the latest inflation data will appear this Thursday).

Economists suggest that in annual terms, the growth of the consumer price index may slow down from 8.2% to 8.0%. But it's still too much for the Fed, given the 2% target, and if the CPI comes out higher than expected, then this could be a new bullish driver for the dollar.

In the meantime, the dollar index (DXY) is falling. On its daily chart, a new descending channel has formed, with a lower border passing near the 109.00 mark. If inflation figures expected on Thursday disappoint market participants, then this mark will become the immediate target for the fall of DXY. At the same time, the overall positive dynamics of the dollar and DXY is preserved. The signal for the resumption of long positions on it will be a breakdown of the "round" levels 113.00, 114.00.

And today, the publication of important macro statistics is not planned. We are waiting for the results of the US midterm elections.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Jurij Tolin,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Tinjauan Pasangan GBP/USD – 17 Mac: Pasaran Telah Tenang. Tiada Siapa Peduli Tentang Ekonomi

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan EUR/USD – 17 Mac: Tiada Petunjuk Pembetulan

US Dollar: Pratonton Mingguan

Pratonton Mingguan EUR/USD: Semua Tumpuan pada The Fed

Apa Yang Perlu Diperhatikan pada 17 Mac? Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pedagang Baharu

Satu Masalah Baharu Timbul untuk Amerika – Had Siling Hutang (Menjangka #SPX dan #NDX akan Meneruskan Penurunan Mereka Selepas Pemulihan Jangka Pendek yang Kemungkinan)

USD/JPY: Analisis dan Ramalan

Apakah yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 14 Mac? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan GBP/USD – 14 Mac: Hari Terakhir Minggu Ini Sekadar Formaliti

Tinjauan Pasangan EUR/USD – 14 Mac: Mungkin Itu Sudah Memadai?

Analisis terbaik