empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
10.04.2025 10:58 AM
Wall Street responding to president's call
Open trading account Open demo account

Where there's smoke, there's fire. At the start of the second week of April, a rumor spread on social media about a 90-day delay in US tariffs, causing markets to surge, only to return to their previous levels shortly after. The fake news was debunked, but it turned out that someone had access to sensitive information. Just two days later, Donald Trump himself announced the delay, and that earlier "rehearsal" became a moment of glory for the S&P 500 bulls.

The broad stock index jumped by 9.5%, marking its best percentage performance since the 2008 global financial crisis. Market capitalization surged by a record-breaking $5.1 trillion, with the biggest beneficiaries of the positive news from the White House being the tech stocks—yesterday's underdogs.

S&P 500's daily performance

This image is no longer relevant

Another record was set by the volatility index (VIX), which posted the sharpest downward move in its history. No surprise there—rarely does fear on the market so suddenly give way to greed, and the fear of missing out pushed the S&P 500 up like a rocket.

A clear example of this dramatic mood shift came from Goldman Sachs, which initially raised the probability of a US recession within the next 12 months to 65%, only to retract that forecast following the White House's 90-day tariff delay. The bank reverted to its base case: no recession.

Wags say the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions. A steep drop in the S&P 500 is often a harbinger of economic contraction, as seen in 2008 and 2020. But there are cases, like during Russia's 1998 debt crisis, when the index tanked without a subsequent drop in GDP.

Share of equities in US household assets

This image is no longer relevant

Still, the connection between the S&P 500 and the real economy is undeniable. Currently, the share of equities in American household assets has reached a record-high 36%. Market growth sparks optimism and boosts consumer spending—and vice versa. Consumer activity directly affects GDP. That's why if the broad stock index doesn't recover, a cooling of US GDP will be almost inevitable.

This image is no longer relevant

In reality, the trade war is far from over. The 10% universal tariff remains in place, China is facing a 125% tariff burden, and there's no guarantee that talks with other countries will succeed. They may commit to terms they never intend to fulfill—just as China did in 2018–2019. Uncertainty hasn't gone away, and the S&P 500's rapid rise may yet prove to be a "fools' rally."

Technical outlook

On the daily chart, a large-bodied bar was formed. Long positions opened during the dip to support at 4,910 proved to be a smart move. However, a drop back below 5,405—or a rejection from resistance levels at 5,500 or 5,600—should be taken as signals to lock in profits and consider switching to short positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Wave analysis
GBP/USD Analysis on May 13, 2025 The wave pattern for GBP/USD has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive structure — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave picture is almost identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February
Chin Zhao
18:37 2025-05-13 +02:00
1120
Wave analysis
EUR/USD Analysis on May 13, 2025 The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed into a bullish pattern and remains such. There is little doubt that this shift was triggered exclusively
Chin Zhao
18:35 2025-05-13 +02:00
1210
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair is pulling back from the monthly high reached yesterday. This retreat is driven by a technical correction following a strong upward move. The U.S. Dollar Index, which
Irina Yanina 18:30 2025-05-13 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CAD pair continues its five-day rally, trading near the key psychological level of 1.4000, where it is encountering resistance ahead of the release of the U.S. Consumer Price
Irina Yanina 18:26 2025-05-13 UTC+2

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair is losing slight ground, holding losses below 164.40 following the release of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Surveys for Germany and the Eurozone. In May, Germany's ZEW Economic
Irina Yanina 18:24 2025-05-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of recovery but continues to face challenges as the U.S. dollar strengthens amid progress in trade negotiations between the United States and China
Irina Yanina 11:08 2025-05-13 UTC+2

USA and China: A 90-Day Truce. U.S. Inflation Report in Focus (High probability of a decline in EUR/USD and GBP/USD)

On Monday, the markets breathed a sigh of relief following the announcement of a trade agreement between the United States and China. The deal involves mutual tariff reductions, but only
Pati Gani 10:07 2025-05-13 UTC+2

The Market Hits the Jackpot!

Bingo! No one could have dreamed of such an outcome from the U.S.-China meeting—not even in their most optimistic fantasies. The reduction of U.S. import tariffs from 145% to 30%
Marek Petkovich 09:20 2025-05-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 13: The British Pound Takes a Low Blow

The GBP/USD currency pair plummeted rapidly on Monday. The U.S., represented by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, announced the first signs of progress in trade negotiations with China. Following a bilateral
Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-05-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 13: The U.S. And China Unexpectedly Reached an Agreement

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped sharply, like a rock falling. Can you guess who deserves the credit for that? It's none other than Donald Trump. Though this time
Paolo Greco 07:30 2025-05-13 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 13? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Quite a few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Tuesday, but most are expected to have only a minor impact on the movement of both currency pairs. As a reminder
Paolo Greco 05:59 2025-05-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD. The Dollar Is Back in the Saddle. But for How Long?

The greenback is back on top: the U.S. Dollar Index hit a four-week high on Monday, responding to the announcement of a three-month truce in the trade war between
Irina Manzenko 01:01 2025-05-13 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 03:00 2025-05-14 UTC--4
GBP/USD – May 13th: Unemployment in Britain Is Rising Again
11:01 2025-05-13
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 04:00 2025-05-14 UTC--4
EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast
11:08 2025-05-13
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-05-13 UTC--4
USD/JPY Forecast for May 13, 2025
04:49 2025-05-13
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 23:00 2025-05-13 UTC--4
What to Pay Attention to on May 13? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
05:59 2025-05-13
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-05-13 UTC--4
EUR/USD Overview – May 13: The U.S. And China Unexpectedly Reached an Agreement
07:30 2025-05-13
Fundamental analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.