empty
12.10.2023 02:55 PM
GBP/USD: Awaiting New Signs of Dollar Strength

This image is no longer relevant

The market has ignored the rise in U.S. producer inflation and the hawkish stance of the Fed officials regarding the prospects of monetary policy.

As indicated by the data published on Wednesday, the annual Producer Price Index (PPI) of American producers accelerated in September from 2.0% (revised from 1.6% in August) to 2.2% (against a forecast of 1.6%).

The annual core PPI (excluding food and energy) also increased in September to 2.7% (from 2.5% in August, with a forecast of 2.3%).

At the same time, most members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consider another rate hike this year to be the most likely scenario, although much will depend on incoming data, particularly from the labor market, GDP dynamics, and inflation data. The minutes from the September Fed meeting, published on Wednesday, confirmed that monetary policy should remain "sufficiently restrictive" for some time to bring inflation back to the 2% level.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained at the previous day's closing level, near 105.56. As of writing, DXY was nine points below this level, while investors, for the most part, maintained a cautious trading position ahead of the release of the September statistics on U.S. consumer inflation (at 12:30 GMT). Here, a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 0.3% (from 0.6% in August) and 3.6% in annual terms (compared to the previous 3.7%) is expected. The annual core CPI may also decrease in September to 4.1% from 4.3% the previous month.

These forecasts are holding back dollar buyers and the dollar itself from a more pronounced recovery after a recent correction. If these forecasts materialize, the likelihood of another interest rate hike in the U.S. will decrease.

Nonetheless, there is still a chance that inflation indicators will exceed expectations, considering the data on rising producer prices published Wednesday, which is also keeping the dollar from further weakening today.

The rise in inflation in the U.S. will compel Fed officials to adhere to their main scenario—keeping the interest rate at high levels for an extended period, at least until the middle of next year, as some economists believe, increasing the probability of another interest rate hike by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, market participants monitoring the dynamics of the British pound have paid attention to the publication of data on the UK GDP and industrial production (at 06:00 GMT). In August, the country's GDP increased by 0.2%, following a decline of 0.6% (revised from 0.5%) in July. However, industrial production volumes decreased by 0.7% in August, after a 1.1% decline (revised from 0.7%) in July. In annual terms, industrial production volumes increased in August, but fell short of the forecast (1.3% against a forecast of 1.7%, following a 1.0% increase in July).

In response to this publication, the pound weakened against the dollar and major cross pairs.

This image is no longer relevant

The GBP/USD pair, in particular, lost 28 pips immediately after the data was published, dropping below the 1.2300 level. If the decline accelerates today, likely after the release of U.S. CPI and in the case of higher figures, a break below the support levels at 1.2280 and 1.2269 would be the first signal for resuming short positions, with a break of the important short-term support level at 1.2232 confirming it.

The GBP/USD pair rose at the end of last week and the beginning of this week. However, this can largely be attributed to the weakening of the dollar rather than pound strength.

The pair remains in the zone of medium-term and long-term bearish trends, below the key levels of 1.2440 and 1.2770, respectively. Therefore, signs of dollar strength will trigger a resumption of the GBP/USD downward trend.

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on May 15? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A relatively large number of macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, but very few are likely to trigger a strong market reaction. The second estimate of Q1 GDP and industrial

Paolo Greco 06:21 2025-05-15 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 15: The Dollar's Ordeal Continues

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, which had started the day before. Recall that on Tuesday, there were no strong fundamental reasons for a significant sell-off

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-05-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 15: Market Confidence in the Dollar Is Practically Nonexistent

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its recovery on Wednesday despite an empty macroeconomic calendar. We are not counting the sole inflation report from Germany, as it initially had no potential

Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-05-15 UTC+2

The Dollar Is Sentenced

Rumors are swirling. The sharp rally in the South Korean won has sparked speculation that Washington is pressuring its trade partners to strengthen their currencies. Donald Trump has repeatedly stated

Marek Petkovich 00:38 2025-05-15 UTC+2

The Pound Consolidates, Another Attempt at Upward Movement Expected

The UK labor market report showed that wage growth remains high despite a slight slowdown— the three-month average declined from 5.9% to 5.6%, and including bonuses, it decreased from 5.7%

Kuvat Raharjo 00:38 2025-05-15 UTC+2

Yen Resumes the Trend

Be careful what you wish for. Markets interpreted the halving of Japan's GDP forecasts for fiscal years 2025/2026 as a signal that the Bank of Japan would not resume

Marek Petkovich 00:38 2025-05-15 UTC+2

The Euro Is Losing Direction

Inflation in the eurozone remained at 2.2% in April, slightly above the 2.1% forecast, due to a somewhat stronger increase in core inflation. This rise is partially attributed

Kuvat Raharjo 00:37 2025-05-15 UTC+2

EUR/USD: The Dollar Falls Out of Favor Again

The euro/dollar pair has been climbing for two days, mirroring a general decline in the U.S. dollar. Having briefly regained strength, the greenback is now under pressure again: the U.S

Irina Manzenko 18:07 2025-05-14 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The current technical and fundamental setup for the AUD/JPY pair points to short-term pressure from the Japanese yen. However, fundamental factors favoring the Australian dollar help maintain the pair's upside

Irina Yanina 11:28 2025-05-14 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

At the moment, the Japanese yen is showing positive momentum against the U.S. dollar for the second consecutive day.The key factor supporting the Japanese currency has been hawkish comments from

Irina Yanina 11:28 2025-05-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.