empty
26.03.2025 11:32 AM
EUR/USD. March 26th. Bears Preparing for a New Attack

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair once again rebounded from the support zone of 1.0781–1.0797, but the bulls showed weakness due to the lack of a supportive news background. Today, the pair has returned to the same 1.0781–1.0797 zone. Another rebound from this area may result in a slight upward move toward the 200.0% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0857. A break and consolidation below this zone would suggest further decline toward the next corrective level at 161.8% – 1.0734. For now, trader activity remains low.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed upward wave barely broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke the prior low. This indicates a gradual shift toward a bearish trend. Trump's tariff rhetoric has placed strong pressure on the dollar in recent weeks, but such market reactions won't last forever—and no new tariffs have yet been introduced.

The fundamental backdrop on Tuesday was extremely weak, making it pointless to analyze reports that had no impact on market sentiment. Today, we will focus on the technical picture. On the hourly chart, we see that the price is being pressed against the 1.0781–1.0797 zone. Since this week's news background is also weak, technical factors will play a decisive role. The pair's gradual decline with repeated tests of this support zone signals that bears are applying pressure, but remain too weak for a sharp breakout. Therefore, I believe that today or tomorrow this support zone may give way. If broken, a strong fall is unlikely, but it may support further strengthening of the U.S. dollar—at least until Donald Trump announces new tariffs, which may happen as soon as next week. So bears have limited time to act.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming another "bearish" divergence and closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818. This sets the stage for a continued drop toward the next corrective level at 50.0% – 1.0696. There is room for further decline, as the price is still above the ascending trend channel. No new divergences are forming on any indicators as of now.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

In the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 305 long positions and closed 46,030 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group has once again turned bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 189,000, while short positions have fallen to 129,000.

For 20 consecutive weeks, large players were reducing their exposure to the euro, but for the past 6 weeks, they have been cutting shorts and increasing longs. The difference in monetary policy stances between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the U.S. dollar, but Trump's policies have become a stronger influence, potentially pushing the FOMC toward a more dovish stance and increasing the risk of a U.S. recession.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

  • U.S. – Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC)

On March 26, the economic calendar includes just one moderately important event in the U.S. The influence of the news background on market sentiment may increase in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Sales of the pair were possible following the rebounds from 1.0944 and 1.0857 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0857 and 1.0797. All targets have been reached. New short positions can be considered after a close below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone, with targets at 1.0734 and 1.0622. Long positions can be considered if the pair rebounds from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart with a target at 1.0857, but for now, the bears are in control.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0529 to 1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. July 3rd. The Most Important Day of the Week

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 1.1802 level, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and showed a slight decline. However, by Thursday morning, the pair had returned

Samir Klishi 12:10 2025-07-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD. The Sterling May Stop Receiving Support

As previously mentioned on multiple occasions, the strength of the major currencies traded against the U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange (Forex) market was based solely on the fundamental weakness

Pati Gani 11:27 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Forex forecast 03/07/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 10:57 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 3, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday rebounded from the 200.0% retracement level at 1.3749, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and fell below the support zone

Samir Klishi 10:03 2025-07-03 UTC+2

If Crude Oil manages to break below the Pivot level, it has the potential to test its nearest Support level, Thursday, July 03, 2025.

Crude Oil, Thursday, July 03, 2025. Poor global economic conditions such as the stagnation of Chinese & European manufacturing have triggered concerns about global Crude Oil demand and expectations

Arief Makmur 07:36 2025-07-03 UTC+2

The Nasdaq 100 index has the potential to test its closest Resistance level, Thursday, July 03, 2025.

Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday, July 03, 2025. Positive Big Tech Company financial reports and the increasingly strong rumors of the Fed's Dovish policy and the rise of AI innovation have

Arief Makmur 07:36 2025-07-03 UTC+2

EUR/AUD Forecast for July 3, 2025

On the daily chart, the EUR/AUD pair is moving sideways in the upper half of the price channel and above the MACD indicator line. The signal line of the Marlin

Laurie Bailey 06:33 2025-07-03 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 3, 2025

Ahead of today's U.S. employment data release for June, the euro consolidated near the price channel line on the daily chart. The long lower shadow of the candlestick suggests that

Laurie Bailey 05:11 2025-07-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 3, 2025

By the end of yesterday, the British pound had lost 108 pips. Although the reason was not the anticipation of today's U.S. employment data, but rather domestic political turmoil, this

Laurie Bailey 05:11 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Silver Forecast for July 3, 2025

After two days of intense struggle (Monday and Tuesday) between the bulls and bears along the price channel line amid heightened volatility, yesterday we saw the outcome — the bulls

Laurie Bailey 05:11 2025-07-03 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.