Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0795 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.0795 shortly afterward, when the MACD was in the oversold zone, triggered scenario #2 for a buy, but a quick rally did not materialize.

Today's release of the IFO Business Climate Index exceeded analysts' expectations, although not all components showed strong results. Nevertheless, traders viewed this as a possible signal of an end to the downturn in the eurozone's largest economy, and the renewed interest in the euro helped halt the EUR/USD decline. However, it's too early to conclude a long-term trend reversal based on just one favorable IFO report. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD seems to have found a bottom, and the key question now is whether bullish momentum can return in the near term.

It's quite possible that if the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index and New Home Sales data come in weaker than expected, EUR/USD may resume its upward movement. However, if the actual data is better than forecast or neutral, the current upward trend in EUR/USD could quickly lose steam.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible at a price level around 1.0835 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.0870. At 1.0870, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. A euro rally today will only be likely after weak U.S. data and dovish comments from FOMC members. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0812 level, when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0835 and 1.0870 may be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0812 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0781, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return if the Fed adopts a hawkish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0835 level, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and trigger a reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.0812 and 1.0781 may be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – anticipated level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – anticipated level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator: When entering the market, it's important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when deciding to enter trades. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you do decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan—like the one presented above. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.