empty
06.03.2025 11:03 AM
From delays to exemptions: S&P 500 finds support

The S&P 500 found solid ground after the White House decided to exempt the auto industry from the 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. Donald Trump and his team are now considering another exception—agricultural products, particularly potash and fertilizers. This move could provide yet another boost for US stocks.

However, the revision of the tariff list was not the only reason for the S&P 500's rebound. Support also came from international markets. Germany plans to create a €500 billion special infrastructure fund and exempt defense spending from fiscal constraints. The European Union is preparing to increase military spending by €800 billion. China has maintained its 5% GDP growth target, signaling further fiscal and monetary stimulus. Countries are bracing for trade wars, which suggests that such conflicts won't completely derail the global economy.

Recession fears grow for the US economy

Meanwhile, recession risks for the US economy have resurfaced. According to JP Morgan, the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months has risen from 17% to 31% since late November. Goldman Sachs estimates that the scenario has increased from 14% in January to 23%.

Recession risks for US stocks

This image is no longer relevant

A recession spells trouble for US stocks. Donald Trump's statement that America must endure "some pain" before entering a new Golden Age is not reassuring for investors. The President's rapid tariff rollout has shattered market hopes that his threats were merely a bluff.

At the same time, Elon Musk is also pushing forward aggressively, accelerating efforts to reduce government bureaucracy—a move that could further slow the US economy. A fresh warning sign came with February's ADP employment report, which showed only 77,000 new private-sector jobs, the smallest increase in two years. Fearing the White House's aggressive protectionism, companies are hesitant to expand hiring.

This image is no longer relevant

Will Powell step in to support the market?

Investors are now eagerly awaiting US labor market data and Jerome Powell's comments. If Trump refuses to throw a lifeline to the S&P 500, could the Federal Reserve Chairman step in instead?

Signs of a cooling US economy have led futures markets to raise expectations for three rate cuts in 2025, up from two previously. If Powell confirms this outlook, it could trigger another wave of optimism for the S&P 500.

Technical outlook for S&P 500

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 has bounced off the expected support at 5,740, forming a potential bottom. The probability of consolidation is increasing, with the upper border likely near 5,940 or 5,980. A rejection from these levels could signal profit-taking on long positions from the dip and a possible reversal.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CAD pair is showing signs of recovery, rising toward the 1.3700 level and approaching the weekly high reached earlier. Fundamental factors point to bullish dominance and the potential

Irina Yanina 12:46 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Markets unfazed by Trump's new tariff threats

Donald Trump's bark is louder than his bite. Markets have grown so accustomed to his rhetoric that the S&P 500 barely flinched at the White House's latest threat to slap

Marek Petkovich 11:53 2025-07-09 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/USD pair is holding steady at current levels with a bullish bias but limited movement following the release of inflation data from China—Australia's key trading partner. In June

Irina Yanina 11:35 2025-07-09 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen extended its decline for the third consecutive day, pushing the USD/JPY pair to a new two-week high above the key 147.00 level during the Asian

Irina Yanina 11:23 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Consumer lending in the US is slowing down

According to data, consumer lending in the U.S. grew at its slowest pace in three months in May amid a decline in outstanding balances on credit cards and other revolving

Jakub Novak 10:43 2025-07-09 UTC+2

The ECB Is in a Good Position

While the euro remains under pressure against the dollar, risking a complete loss of its bullish momentum, one European policymaker believes the European Central Bank should not be overly concerned

Jakub Novak 10:33 2025-07-09 UTC+2

What to Watch on July 9th: Fundamental Events Breakdown for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic publications scheduled for Wednesday. The week began fairly actively, with both currency pairs declining, even though the fundamental backdrop rather points to another decline

Paolo Greco 08:57 2025-07-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview on July 9, 2025

The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday, which continues to puzzle observers. As we've repeatedly noted, no instrument in any market can move in the same direction indefinitely

Paolo Greco 08:18 2025-07-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview on July 9, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair maintained a corrective tone throughout Tuesday. There were no macroeconomic events that day, but Donald Trump "listed" all the countries for which tariffs will be raised

Paolo Greco 07:47 2025-07-09 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold remains under pressure; however, several factors are limiting further decline. Expectations that the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump will support inflation in the United States

Irina Yanina 19:23 2025-07-08 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.