empty
11.02.2025 08:35 AM
Wave analysis of BTC/USD on February 11. Bitcoin trapped in range-bound market

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure of the 4-hour chart for BTC/USD appears completely clear. After a long and complex a-b-c-d-e corrective structure, which formed between March 14 and August 5, a new impulse wave began to develop, already taking a five-wave form. Judging by the size of the first wave, the fifth wave might turn out to be shortened. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000 - $115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, wave 4 has taken on a three-wave structure, confirming the accuracy of the current wave count. The news environment has supported Bitcoin's rally due to continuous inflows of investments from institutional traders, governments of some countries, and pension funds. However, Trump's policies could force investors to exit the market, and an uptrend cannot last forever.

Currently, the structure of wave 2 within wave 5 raises doubts about whether it is actually wave 2 of 5. I tend to believe that the bullish trend is nearing its end.

Bitcoin gets stuck in limited trading range

BTC/USD rose by $2,500 on Monday. However, Bitcoin remains within a sideways range, and that is the most important factor right now. Of course, there are significant movements within this $20,000 range, but there is no clear trend at the moment.

According to the current wave count, the bullish phase is over. I still believe we are at the beginning of a complex and prolonged correction or a new bearish trend.

On Monday, there was practically no significant news, but a few noteworthy events occurred. However, the market barely reacted to them. I don't see a direct connection between Trump's new tariffs and the rise of either the dollar or Bitcoin. Both the dollar and Bitcoin are rising on such news, which contradicts common sense.

Nevertheless, some may argue that Bitcoin's growth was fueled by Trump's tariffs, but this time, the increase was minimal.

Monetary policy is more important than Trump's tariffs.

Currently, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a more significant role. For the past two years, the market has been actively investing in Bitcoin and stocks, anticipating a dovish Fed policy. In simple terms: the lower the Fed's interest rates, the lower the returns on bank deposits, bonds, and other "safe" instruments. Therefore, capital has been flowing from safe assets into riskier ones for the past two years. However, the Federal Reserve has been cutting rates for six months now, so the capital rotation should have already ended.

When Trump returned to power, he made many pledges regarding cryptocurrency, including:

  • To improve cryptocurrency regulation
  • To create a national Bitcoin reserve

Yet, none of these promises have been fulfilled so far.

As a result, Bitcoin currently lacks solid reasons to enter a new bullish cycle without a proper corrective structure.

This image is no longer relevant

Key takeaways

Based on the wave analysis of BTC/USD, I conclude that the asset's growth is nearing its completion. The fifth wave could be shortened, which is an unpopular opinion but remains a valid possibility. If this assumption is correct, we are in for a collapse or a complex correction. Buying Bitcoin right now is not advisable. In the near future, Bitcoin could drop below the low of wave 4, confirming the transition to a new bearish trend. On a higher wave scale, we still see a five-wave bullish structure, but a corrective or bearish structure is likely to form soon.

Key principles of my analysis:

  • Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change.
  • If you are uncertain about the market trend, it's better to stay out.
  • There is no 100% certainty in price direction. Always use Stop Loss orders to protect your positions.
  • Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies for a more comprehensive approach.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin reaches $122K

Since the start of Asian trading, Bitcoin has climbed from $118,000 to $122,000, with no signs of selling pressure in sight. Ethereum has topped $4,300, supported by positive macroeconomic news

Jakub Novak 09:22 2025-08-11 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on August 11

Bitcoin is aiming for a new all-time high, currently trading above $122,000. Ethereum is also nearing its record of over $4,400, suggesting the continuation of a bullish market that appeared

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:38 2025-08-11 UTC+2

Bitcoin touches $117,500

During this morning's session, Bitcoin updated its level to $117,500. The key task for buyers now will be to keep trading above the $116,000 mark. Ethereum also refreshed its high

Jakub Novak 11:44 2025-08-08 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on August 8

Earlier this week, many were worried that Bitcoin might plunge sharply toward the 110,000 level, fearing a deeper correction toward 100,000. However, market sentiment has since shifted in the opposite

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:07 2025-08-08 UTC+2

Cardano has the potential for a correction to test its pivot level in the near future. Friday, August 08, 2025.

Cardano – Friday, August 08, 2025. With the EMA(50) positioned above the EMA(200) and the RSI(14) indicator in Extreme-Bullish conditions, it appears that buyers are currently dominant. However, the appearance

Arief Makmur 07:39 2025-08-08 UTC+2

Despite the potential for a correction, Uniswap still has a healthy bullish bias. Friday, August 08, 2025.

Uniswap – Friday, August 08, 2025. The Golden Cross condition of both EMAs and the RSI(14) in the Neutral-Bullish area indicates potential for strengthening today. However, the appearance

Arief Makmur 07:39 2025-08-08 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on August 7

Bitcoin remains within a newly formed sideways channel, once again attempting yesterday to break above the 115,500 level. Ethereum also shows resilience, which is confirmed by recent activity metrics

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:48 2025-08-07 UTC+2

SEC no longer considers staking offer or sale of securities

Bitcoin is hitting lows more often than it is reaching local highs. Every major rally is followed by slow and steady sell-offs, a pattern that suggests a broader crypto market

Jakub Novak 11:28 2025-08-06 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on August 6

Bitcoin continues to trade within a new sideways channel, and its inability to hold above $115,000 indicates a high likelihood of continued correction. Another decline toward the $112,000 level

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:14 2025-08-06 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on August 5

Yesterday's failure to break above the $115,000 level—even amid a strong correction observed in the second half of the day—suggests that Bitcoin's decline may continue and that larger pullbacks toward

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:03 2025-08-05 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.